Several different factors have been posited regarding the number of COVID deaths. I have not been able to find age to be a significant factor, apart from nursing homes. A recent article in the NY Times pointed out that 35% of all COVID deaths have either been nursing home residents or workers at nursing homes – https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/09/us/coronavirus-cases-nursing-homes-us.html
In my limited research, population density continues to be the number one factor in explaining the variation in the number of COVID deaths by state. Number of outbreaks in nursing homes in a state is another significant factor, as should be expected based on the statistics. The number of nursing homes in a state on its own is not a factor, just the number of nursing homes that have had outbreaks.
Other factors I have found to be significant are sunshine and the percentage of the population that is not a U.S. citizen. Sunshine could lead to higher vitamin D levels in a population. Percentage of non-U.S. citizens in a state could mean more frequent international travel to visit family outside the U.S., leading to a higher potential for exposure to the virus.
Using a nonlinear model, these four factors explain 73% of the variation in the number of COVID deaths per million people by state. Note that number of deaths per million people is not a rate, it is just the number of deaths normalized to the population. Death per million is a better comparison across states than just raw deaths as state populations vary significantly. See the graph below for a comparison of the estimated number of deaths and the actuals.
Two outliers are Florida to the low side (estimate is higher than the actual) and Louisiana on the high side (estimate is lower than the actual). Louisiana’s outbreak seemed to occur right after Mardi Gras and could have been spread by this event.
As always, I am interested in your comments and insights.
Age isn’t a factor – I hear that from our other next door neighbor too, who, as you know, studies at Columbia NYC. Nursing homes are ripe for the virus. Would you also say dorms are ripe? I hope not.
That’s right, Michael says age is just a proxy for health.
Lots of young people living in high rises in Arlington, VA, but deaths are low there.
I would think dorms would be similar to high rises.
Excellent
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