Over the last two weeks, Tennessee has been number one in the one week average of the number of daily new cases for COVID-19 per 100k people. California overtook Tennessee on Sunday (but that could change again soon as California test positivity rate is declining while Tennessee’s is surging). Why have things been so bad in the Volunteer State? One reason is the lack of restrictions compared to other states. Tennessee has never had a mask mandate, and Governor Bill Lee’s recent executive order only issued limits on some social gatherings. This is similar to other states that have had recent surges such as the Dakotas. Indeed, among the top five states in peak cases (to date) only one had a mask mandate in place before the peak was reached and in that case the mandate started four days before the peak occurred. To the credit of the governors of Iowa, North Dakota, and Wyoming, they at least put in place a mask mandate, unlike the governors of South Dakota and Tennessee, who continue to provide little to no leadership in putting a stop to the spread of the virus. See the table below for a comparison, which lists the top five states in terms of highest one week averages of daily new cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 people.
In addition to not having mask mandates in place until recently, these five states also have been among the least restrictive in the United States. Looking at the rest of the U.S., among the thirty five states that had a mask mandate in place at least one month before the peak in new cases (peak to date), 15 have experienced peaks that are above the median and 20 have experienced peak below the median. Among the states that are either late in issuing requirements for face coverings, have never issued them, or cancelled them (Mississippi), 11 are above average and only 5 are below the average. See the table below.
While a lack of restrictions does not explain all the variation in the spread of COVID-19 among states, this is strong evidence that the reason for Tennessee’s issues with COVID-19 are due at least in part to lack of state-level leadership in slowing the spread of the virus.