Which States Are Doing Better or Worse Than Expected in COVID-19 Hospitalizations?

In my last post, I looked at the increase in hospitalizations since the beginning of Fall. That is not a fair comparison in some aspects as some states with recent surges in hospitalizations have higher percentage increases in part because they did so well as quashing the spread of COVID-19 in the Summer. For example, Colorado was averaging 200-300 hospitalizations due to COVID-19 when Fall began, while Tennessee was averaging between 800 and 900. Since then, Colorado has surged to 1,100 while Tennessee is now at 1,700. One way to compare states is to look at their rank in population compared to their rank for current COVID-19 hospitalizations. In this regard, Nebraska and South Dakota are the two worst states. Nebraska ranks 37th in population, but 25th in current hospitalizations due to COVID-19. South Dakota is the 46th most populous state, but ranks 34th in hospitalization. The best state in this respect is Washington, which ranks 13th in population but 36th in hospitalizations due to COVID-19. See the graph below.

In the graph, the states marked with red dots are at least 5 places above their population rank when it comes to current hospitalizations due to COVID-19. The states marked with green dots are at least 5 places below their population rank. The only states in the Southeast with red dots are Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia. Most of the states with red dots are in the Midwest.