The U.S. Will Soon Be Number #1 in Coronavirus Cases

Just five days ago, the U.S. ranked eighth in total number of reported cases of Coronavirus, behind China, Italy, Iran, Spain, South Korea, Germany, and France. Now we are third, behind only China and Italy. Cases in France and Spain were both growing dramatically for a while, but instituted lock downs and their growth rates have slowed. China’s official cases have slowed to a standstill. Italy started their lock down on March 9th. Over the last six days the rate of growth in total reported cases has slowed to an average daily increase equal to 13.7%. At the current rates, the U.S. will surpass both Italy and China in five days.

From the graph you can see that in five days the U.S. should have more than 100,000 cases, at which point we will have passed both China and Italy. However, I think we will pass Italy a day or two sooner, as I consider the projection for Italy to be their worst case. Two weeks into their lock down, their daily reported cases should soon peak, at which point the growth rate will slow even more. The curve for the U.S. may be optimistic. Total cases in the U.S. are still growing exponentially at a 33% daily rate since March 1st. In terms of the number of days this takes for cases to double, this translates to 2.5. That’s right, since March 1st, every 2.5 days the number of total cases in the U.S. has doubled. There have been even bigger increases the last few days, in the range of 40-50%, as testing has expanded.

There have been some measures taken in the U.S., but to flatten the curve, we need to do more. New York, California, and a few other states have ordered complete lock downs. The rest of us need to stay home and only leave the house to get groceries and when absolutely necessary. Federal, state, and local leaders also need to do more to make sure people stay home for the foreseeable future.

Even though this is quite sobering, I will end this post on a positive note. One piece of good news is that so far the death rate in the U.S. from Coronavirus is very low – only 1.2%. Hopefully that will stay low.