Reports of a surge in new cases of COVID-19 have made headlines recently, but do they mark the start of a second wave of exponential growth in the spread of the virus? One claim made is that the increase in cases is due to increased testing. For example, in the state of Tennessee, the seven-day average of tests per day increased from 8,249 on May 26th to 11,057 on June 19th. This is a 34% increase. The seven-day average of new cases per day in the state of Tennessee as of June 19th is 699. This is an 89% increase since May 26th, when the seven-day average of new cases per day was 370. The increase in new cases is more than double the increase in testing over the same period. Alabama has similar statistics, with a 76% increase in the seven-day average of new cases per day over the last 3.5 weeks. This is more than three times the 22% increase in the daily number of tests.
Adjusted for the increase in the number of tests, the graph below shows the rise in the number of cases since May 27th. Even accounting for the increase in testing, number of new cases per day has increased more than 40% for both states. Since easing restrictions, the spread of the virus is increasing again. More needs to be done in both states to slow the spread of the virus.
In Madison County Huntsville Hospital is reporting that the testing positive rate has increased from around 3-4% to 8%.
Ugh. I saw that overall the positive rate across all Alabama was in the 11-12% range. That is about twice the positive rate for Tennessee.
Very nicely analyzed Dr. Smart. Have you sent your results to the CDC? Or Dr. Fauci? They should see this! Be safe America! World!
VR, Rod Duke, Huntsville Alabama.
Thanks Rod! No have not sent to CDCd or Fauci yet. Hope you have a Happy Father’s Day!
Nice work, Christian. It’s hard to have to see bad trends, but it should help us clarify our thinking.
Thanks Doug.
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