I wrote posts last month about the regional variations in COVID-19. As of early November, the Northeast had been hardest hit in the spring, while much of the South and West experienced a peak in the summer, while the Midwest was seeing new highs in early fall. Now all regions are experiencing a surge in cases that is surpassing previous peaks. The Midwest is still the hardest hit, while the other regions are pretty comparable. See the graph below.
New cases in the Midwest have recently been double that experienced in other regions. The Midwest as a region is exceeded in new cases per capita by only three countries – Georgia, Serbia, and Croatia. There has been a recent dip in new cases in the Midwest – hopefully this trend will continue, but with the recent reports of travel and gatherings during the Thanksgiving holiday, this could reverse itself soon.
I am curious to see how this data correlates to an 18 day lag in the death rate, which is dropping
Has that correlation changed over time?
Good question, needs some analysis.
Although CDC data is showing a decrease in deaths, I speculate this is due to a lag in reporting, not an actual decrease in the number of deaths. The stable trend in years past is for deaths to increase at this time of year, not decrease. Other data sources show an increase in deaths due to COVID-19 in recent weeks.
As the admin of this web page is working, no doubt very shortly it will be well-known, due to its feature contents. Michel Gothart Aldric
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