I grew up in Alabama. It always seemed to be the case that we were ranked 48th or 49th out of the 50 states in metrics like health care, education, and income. Behind us was usually Mississippi, which led us to say “Thank God for Mississippi” as they kept us from ranking dead last. Louisiana often trailed Alabama as well.
Looking at COVID-19 data, residents of Alabama can again thank Mississippi (and Louisiana) from being last in another metric. This is the ranking of the number of total COVID-19 cases to date compared with its population ranking. We should expect that more populous states like California, Florida, and Texas to have more cases than less populous states like Alaska and Wyoming. And indeed, that is the case. California, Texas, Florida, and New York are the four most populous states, and they are all in the top four in total COVID-19 cases through August 12th. Alaska, Vermont, and Wyoming are the three least populated states, and they all rank in the bottom three in COVID-19 cases. However, for other states between these extremes, there is quite a bit of variation.
Some states rank quite a bit lower in COVID-19 cases than their state rank, and other rank higher. For example, Ohio is the 7th most populous state, but ranks 15th among the 50 states and the District of Columbia in COVID-19 cases. Oregon has the biggest disparity among these states – it is the 27th most populous state, but ranks 38th in COVID-19 cases. Many southern states have experienced many more COVID-19 cases than would be expected based on their population alone. These include Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Tennessee. All rank higher in COVID-19 cases than their population rank. This indicates COVID-19 has spread more rapidly in these states. Alabama is one of the worst in this disparity. It is the 24th most populous state, but ranks 14th in COVID-19 cases. However, in yet another case of “Thank God for Mississippi,” the disparity in the Magnolia state is even worse. Mississippi ranks 34th in population, but 21st in COVID-19 cases. However, people in Mississippi are likely saying “Thank God for Louisiana” as it is even worse, ranking 25th in population, but 10th in COVID-19 cases. See the graph below. The states in which the difference is at least five are labelled.
Governors in southern states need to do more to slow the spread of COVID-19. Schools are beginning to re-open, leading to more potential spread of the virus.