Six weeks ago, I wrote a blog post titled “Thank God for Mississippi.” It was a reference to an old saying in Alabama that even though the state was ranked 48th or 49th out of the 50 states in metrics like health care, education, and income. Behind Alabama was usually Mississippi, which led people in the state to say “Thank God for Mississippi” as they kept the Yellowhammer State from ranking dead last.
At that time, looking at COVID-19 data the residents of Alabama were able to thank Mississippi for keeping them from being last in another metric. This is the ranking of the number of total COVID-19 cases to date compared with its population ranking. We should expect that more populous states like California, Florida, and Texas to have more cases than less populous states like Alaska and Wyoming. And indeed, that is the case. California, Texas, Florida, and New York are the four most populous states, and they are all in the top four in total COVID-19 cases through September 30th. Alaska, Vermont, and Wyoming are the three least populated states, and they all rank in the bottom four in COVID-19 cases. However, for other states between these extremes, there is quite a bit of variation.
Some states rank quite a bit lower in COVID-19 cases than their state rank, and others rank higher. For example, Ohio is the 7th most populous state, but ranks 14th among the 50 states and the District of Columbia in COVID-19 cases. Washington state has the biggest positive disparity – it is the 13th most populous state, but ranks 25th in total COVID-19 cases. On the flip side, many southern states have experienced many more COVID-19 cases than would be expected based on their population alone. These include Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Tennessee. All rank higher in COVID-19 cases than their population rank. This indicates COVID-19 has spread more rapidly in these states. Alabama is one of the worst in this regard. It is the 24th most populous state, but ranks 13th in COVID-19 cases. However, unlike six weeks ago, Mississippi ranks one better than the Yellowhammer State. Mississippi ranks 34th in population, and 24st in COVID-19 cases. However, Alabama can still rely of Louisiana for being worse and say “Thank God for Louisiana.” The Bayou State ranks 25th in population, but 11th in COVID-19 cases. See the graph below. The states in which the difference is at least five are labelled.
It is also worth noting that due to the recent COVID-19 outbreaks in the Dakotas, their cases numbers now exceed their population ranks by more than five. On a population-adjusted basis, North and South Dakota are now experiencing more new cases than any other single country except for Israel. Much of the blame for this has been placed on the Sturgis motorcycle rally in South Dakota in August.