Large projects, which take years, and even decades to complete, can become obsolete by the time they are finished, if not before. Long projects either face addressing a series of changes in requirements to meet expectations or risk delivering a capability that is obsolete on arrival. A good example is a project that is still in development and nearing completion.
Venice, Italy is a beautiful city that attracts throngs of tourists. Its 150 canals mark one of its most distinctive features. The city’s future is threatened by climate change and the accompanying rise in sea levels. Venice began a project in 2003 to protect itself from this threat. It is called MOSE after the Italian word for Moses, who parted the Red Sea. Initial estimates for cost and schedule for the undertaking were 1.6 billion euros and eight years. In 2014, the project, already three years behind schedule, was halted due to a corruption scandal. The project is now expected to be completed in 2021 and cost 5.1 billion euros. Since project inception, the cost has more than tripled and the schedule has more than doubled in length.
These metrics are made even worse by the fact that even once completed, MOSE will not provide all the protection that Venice needs. The predicted rise in sea levels when the project began almost two decades ago has changed so much that it is obsolete in terms of meeting its goals. It was designed to protect the city from rising sea levels 100 years out, but climate change forecasts have changed since the initial design, enough so that the system may fail to protect Venice from flooding in less time.
However, even though it will not meet all its intended requirements, MOSE recently completed successful testing and protected Venice from minor flooding this week. It won’t meet all the objectives, but provides some protection. The problems of cost growth and schedule delays are frequent and common, but sometimes overlooked is the issue is even worse than it appears. This is because performance is not held constant. Many undertakings, such as MOSE, not only cost more and take longer than intended, they also often under deliver on performance. To change to meet these goals would require even more money and time. For example, with MOSE a significant redesign would be needed to meet its initial goals.
The problems of cost growth and schedule delays are realizations of risks. They are so common and so large that we can draw two conclusions. One is that risk is high, and the other is that as a profession, project management does not adequately measure or manage risk. My forthcoming book, Solving for Project Risk Management: Understanding the Critical Role of Uncertainty in Project Management, addresses issues with the current practice of risk management and provides ways to better tackle resource risk. My book will be released on November 3rd, but can be pre-ordered now from Amazon or Barnes and Noble. You can read Chapter 1 for free and watch a 10-minute video overview on YouTube.