I continue to see comments that the count of COVID-19 deaths in 2020 are overstated. As Edwards Deming, the 20th century quality control guru, was fond of saying “In God we trust, all other bring data,” so in this post we will look at data that will give some insight into the true number of deaths likely due to the novel coronavirus. According to Worldometer, there were 360,766 deaths due to the novel coronavirus in the United States in 2020. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tracks the weekly number of deaths from all causes, and provides comparisons with the expected number of deaths. The overall pattern and number of deaths follows a seasonal pattern. Also the number of deaths each year tends to gradually increase over time as the population grows and the demographics shift in the direction of an aging population in the United States. Any significant departures from this pattern in 2020 are likely due to COVID-19.
The only irregularity apparent to me between 2017 and 2019 was an increase late in 2017 that continued into 2018. This was due to a severe flu outbreak that resulted in approximately 40,000 more deaths than expected during that time period. The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 blew this away, with three waves that coincide with official data on confirmed deaths due to COVID-19. There were 480,000 more deaths in 2020 than in 2019. The CDC also track the number of expected deaths per week. According to their data, there were 472,000 deaths more than expected in 2020. Both these figures indicate that the official number of confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 are likely under counted by 100,000.
Great visuals, Christian! Thanks for clarifying the epidemic’s impact for the masses.
Christian, I agree the excess death data is sobering. But attributing them to covid seems like assuming what you’re trying to prove. The excess could be due to depression, suicide, alcoholism, drug abuse, reduced access to routine medical care, reduced access to medical tests, and all the other negative effects resulting from both fear of the pandemic and from the social isolation caused by the response to the pandemic.
I think scientists will be studying death records from 2020-21 for the next 10 years trying to figure out how many people really died from covid.
P.S. It would be cool if your graph showed “known” covid deaths and also showed “excess above counted covid deaths” as separate lines.
Thanks for the comment Steve. There likely are some indirect deaths due to COVID, that is a good point. Good advice on the graph, I will do that.
A reasonable assumption is an undercoat, especially in the early months when hospitals lacked tests. The excess deaths in the Spring are particularly telling and point in that direction as the Spring wave of excess deaths was barely exceeded by the end of year surge, although that is not what the official data indicate.
However, looking at some other data there was a 5k increase in gun deaths last year. People hypothesize a surge in suicides but the little I can find on this is mixed.
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