COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are surging across the United States. The advent of colder weather since the beginning of Fall has led people to spend more time indoors, which is where the virus spreads more easily. The total number of hospitalizations recently reached new highs. The peak in the Spring was on April 15th, when 59,940 people were hospitalized with COVID-19. This was almost matched in the Summer on July 23rd with a 59, 718 total. Both were surpassed in November. As of November 11th, the total number of people hospitalized with the novel coronavirus was 65,368. However, this rise is not uniform. Every state has seen an increase but states with colder temps, such as those in the north, have been harder hit than southern states. The median increase in the continental U.S. since the start of Fall is 171%, but many states have seen much bigger increases. Eight states have experienced a five-fold increase in hospitalizations due to COVID-19 since the start of Fall – Wyoming, Connecticut, New Mexico, Michigan, New Hampshire, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. About one-third of the variation in the increase in hospitalizations due to COVID-19 since the beginning of Fall can be explained by the average temperature for that state. See the graph below.
As the weather gets colder throughout Southern states, hospitalizations in areas that are currently warmer will likely surge as well. Among states in the Southeast, both Kentucky and Tennessee have experienced more than 100% increase in hospitalizations due to COVID-19 since the start of Fall. Both states are reaching new heights for cases, hospitalizations, and deaths due to the novel coronavirus in November.
Very trenchant insight, Christian. What other effects might be working at the same time might you imagine?
I can think of a few:
1. Halloween
2. COVID fatigue
3. Football
4. Large gatherings – such as political rallies in October before the election
5. Delayed impact of school re-openings
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