Flattening the Coronavirus Curve – Are We Too Late?

One of the impacts of the fast spread of the coronavirus in the U.S. I have seen mentioned in the news is that unless drastic action is taken now, our health care system could be overwhelmed. A notional graph like the one below has gone viral in the last few days.

I have not seen any numbers associated with it, but I had mixed feelings. On the one hand, I’ve seen reports that the rapid spread of the coronavirus in Italy and Iran has put a strain on hospitals and health care professionals. On the other hand, the U.S. is a much bigger country than either of those, is the biggest economy in the world, and has the best healthcare. I decided to do some simple analysis to see if that could happen here, and when it might occur, given the rapid growth rate that has occurred since March 1st.

According to an article published on The Economist‘s website today:

1. There are 95,000 intensive care unit beds in the U.S. today.
2. According to a recent study conducted in China, 5% of coronavirus patients need to be admitted to the ICU.
3. There is not a lot of excess capacity in the ICUs.

I have not seen any statistics published on available capacity, but let’s assume that ICUs in the U.S. are at 80% capacity. That means there are 95,000*0.20 = 19,000 available beds in the ICU. If 5% of patients need ICU care, that would be expected to occur once the number of cases reaches 380,000 (380,000*.05 = 19,000).

The current number of reported cases of the coronavirus in the U.S. as of March 12th is 1,731. The daily growth rate in the number of cases is 33% – that is, every day there are 33% more reported cases than the day before. At that rate, the healthcare system’s capacity will be reached only 20 days from now. However, we do not have that much time. What we are considering is reported cases, which lags actual cases by several days. No matter what actions we take today, it is likely that the growth rate of reported cases will continue for a while.

Data from China shows about a 12-day lag between when infections occurred and when they were reported. A 12-day lag at the current growth rate would mean there are actually 40,000 infected people in the U.S. In today’s NY Times, Harvard professor of epidemiology Marc Lipsitch said that the idea that there are currently tends of thousands of infected people in the U.S. already “seems plausible.” If that is the case, the health care system in the U.S. will be overwhelmed in the next few weeks. The 5% ICU rate might be conservative, but it does not make a big difference. Assuming it is only 1% only delays reaching capacity by less than a week. While flattening the curve is a great idea, it may be already be too late.