Claims are circulating that although COVID cases have increased across much of the southeast this Summer that it is due to increased testing. Indeed, among 11 southeastern states – Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia – the median increase in testing during July was 72% compared to June. However, in all 11 of these states, the increase in COVID cases was even larger. In all 11 states, the number of new cases increased by a bigger percentage than the increase in testing. For example, in Alabama, there was a 63% increase in tests from June to July, but a 138% increase in new cases. In Mississippi, there was a 44% increase in tests, but a 168% increase in new cases of the virus. To adjust for the increase in testing, I compared all 11 states across the ratio of the increase of cases divided by the increase in testing and another measure independent of testing, namely the percentage increase in deaths due to the virus in July as compared with June. See the graph below.
For all the publicity about Florida, South Carolina had an even bigger increase in deaths in July due to COVID – a 297% increase – compared to a 269% increase for Florida.
We also mark each state on the graph by its mask mandate status. Five states – Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Tennessee – still do not have a mask mandate. Four others – Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Louisiana implemented statewide mask mandates in July. Interestingly, the two states that implemented mask mandates before July – North Carolina and Virginia – have the smallest increase in cases relative to the increase in tests, and a relatively low increase in deaths in July compared to June. Virginia, which was the earliest state among the 11 to issue a mask mandate, had only a 6% increase in COVID deaths in July over June.
The Southeast did not fare well in containing the spread of COVID in July. Part of the reason is that only two states issued mask mandates before July and another five still do not have a mask mandate. Governors in the southeast need to do more to slow the spread of the virus. Wearing masks has proven to be effective at slowing its spread. All states need to implement mask mandates now.
Great analysis! Thank you for piecing together all this disparate data to help quantify the impact of wearing masks. My only comment is that the death rate is a lagging variable. By comparing the percent increase in July, your really measuring the impact of policy in April vs. May.
Thanks Eric. Agree deaths are lagging. The data from Virginia and North Carolina are encouraging though.
Hi Christian. This is brilliant, clear, and easy enough for a governor to understand. Nicely done! How can you get your work to them? I believe it could help change the negative course of this event.
Thanks, Doug. I will reach out to the Governor’s Office.
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