There is a reason for optimism regarding COVID-19. There are now three approved vaccines available in the U.S. and many of the most vulnerable people have either been vaccinated or will soon be. The number of daily new cases is down 80% from its peak of 300,000 on January 2nd to 59,000 on March 1st. The number of daily new deaths per day has also declined dramatically and is down approximately two-thirds since the peak on January 12th. See the graph below for the daily new cases of COVID-19 over the last year.
As a result of this, several states have announced an end to mask mandates, including Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, and Texas. Many states never enacted mask mandates, including Tennessee. However, counties in some of the states without mask mandates enacted mask mandates and in many cases they are being lifted as well. However, it is still too early to end COVID-19 restrictions. Experts say we need about 70% of the people to be immune to the virus before we achieve herd immunity. Even if we assume that everyone infected is immune (which is not proven yet), the latest estimates indicate that 28% of the population of the U.S. has been infected with the virus and only 8% has received there second vaccine dose. We are still only about halfway to achieving herd immunity. Just like you don’t stop fighting a fire until it is extinguished, we should not stop fighting the spread of COVID-19 until we achieve herd immunity. We are getting close – I have seen estimates that, depending on the speed of the vaccine distribution, we may be able to achieve that goal this Summer. We are close to the goal line, but we should not risk a turnover now.