As of early October, the United States has experienced three distinct and somewhat regional outbreaks of COVID-19. The first was in the Northeastern states along with Michigan and Illinois (concentrated in Detroit and Chicago). In the summer, cases peaked in the South, the southern Plains, the Pacific West (except for Alaska and Utah), Ohio, and Iowa. Now, as we enter fall, cases are surging in parts of the Midwest, the northern Plains, Utah, Alaska, and Puerto Rico. See the map below for a graphical summary, with regions defined by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The Northeast and parts of the Western U.S. were the first states to see a significant number of cases. The Northeast successfully suppressed the virus. They have seen a plateau, but cases are now increasing again in this region.
In the summer, cases peaked in Hawaii and the Southern states from coast-to-coast, along with some adjacent areas, including Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Nevada, and Ohio. Cases in these states peaked in July, subsided somewhat, and have plateaued since, with some increase in cases since schools re-opened.
Cases are now surging in the northern Plains states, parts of the Midwest, Arkansas, Alaska, and Puerto Rico. One of the concerns with COVID-19 for this region and the rest of the U.S. is that with the weather turning colder, more people will be gathering indoors. Most diseases, including COVID-19, spread more easily in inside spaces. The problem is even more acute for bars and pubs – these are crowded spaces that are not amenable for social distancing or mask-wearing. Seven of the 10 states with the most bars per capita are states where new cases of COVID-19 are exploding. See the table below for a list of the top 10 states for bars per capita.
The other factor that most of the states where cases are surging do not have statewide mask mandates. Among the states where cases are reaching new highs, only Montana, Arkansas, and Kentucky have a statewide requirement for people to wear face coverings when social distancing is not possible.
Excellent piece, Christian. I know if I were in North Dakota, I’d be drinking more.
It looks we are on the downslope for mortality across the nation – at least for now. We have had two peaks for that.
What is your suspicion/projection for what happens as we move into the traditional flu season? The Spanish Flu had three peaks. Will COVID? Might it have more?
Thanks, Doug. Great question. I think COVID will have another mortality peak, but hopefully not as high as the Spring.
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