Since my last update, new cases of COVID-19 have continued to surge in many U.S. states. The previous top hotspots have shifted little. The spread of the virus continues to accelerate in Tennessee, with more than 134 new cases per 100,000 people per day in the latest weekly average. Arizona and Rhode Island are both still in the top 4, but Ohio has dropped off and has been replaced with California. In the graph below, I’ve also added Indiana, which is fifth.
Tennessee and Rhode Island lead the world in new cases of COVID-19 when adjusted for population. The only country that is close is Lithuania, with 98 new cases per 100,000 people. Among all other countries, the five states in the graph above have more new cases per capita than any nation in the world.
What about deaths? This is currently a very different list of states. None of the top states for new deaths per capita from COVID-19 are currently near the top of the list for new cases. See the graph below for the top six.
In five of the six states that currently lead the country in new deaths from COVID-19, peaks for new cases occurred between 23 and 33 days ago. In only one are cases near a new peak – Pennsylvania, where cases per capita reached a new peak yesterday. (In case you think that this means places like the Dakotas have achieved a kind of herd immunity, think again.)
This means in states like Tennessee, where cases are still accelerating and there is no peak in sight, there is still a lot of pain to come. Daily deaths in the Volunteer State are hitting new highs daily – 177 people in Tenneesee perished from COVID-19 on December 17th – but we are likely several weeks away from seeing a peak.