In my last post, I wrote about how COVID-19 in the United States is three distinct, somewhat regional outbreaks. In the Spring, cases peaked in the Northeast, then in the Southeast in the Summer. Now as we enter Fall, cases are reaching new peaks in parts of the Midwest and Upper Plains states. Someone asked what the data for hospitalizations looks like, and the answer is similar in many respects. There is a lag between new cases and hospitalizations, so in some places where new cases are setting records but hospitalizations are not, that may just be a reflection of this phenomenon.
Just as with cases, there were peaks in hospitalizations in the Northeast in the Spring, along with Colorado, New Mexico, Washington, Oregon, and and most Midwest states except for Wisconsin. In the summer, hospitalizations peaked in the most of the Southeast, Texas, and most of the Pacific West except for Washington and Oregon. Now hospitalizations are reaching new highs in the Wisconsin, West Virginia, the Upper Plains states and some adjacent states. See the graph below for a summary.
The good news is that each successive wave has included fewer states than the previous. The first wave of hospitalizations included 21 states and D.C.. The summer surge included 16 states and Puerto Rico. The current surge includes only 13 states. Most of these have small populations, so the total number of those hospitalized may not see the same number of cases in the Spring and Summer (but it is still possible for the health care systems in these states to be strained). The bad news is that even for those states that have seen peaks in hospitalizations so far, the decrease has leveled off.