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“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Baseball player and philosopher Yogi Berra The term “Black Swan” is often used to refer to… Read More »S-Curves and the Coronavirus

A county fair in England in the early 20th century held a contest to guess the weight of an ox. The person with the closest… Read More »A Guessing Game: The Wisdom of Crowds for Small Samples

In my recent blog post Neoclassical Economics: The Cult of Marginality, I critiqued the use of marginalism in economics. My post received some good feedback,… Read More »The Cult of Marginality Revisited

Did you ever had to solve a homework problem, and you used more than one way to solve it? As long as both methods yielded… Read More »Multiple Models Are Better

When I was in college there was a popular song called Cult of Personality . A couples of lines went: “I tell you one and… Read More »Neoclassical Economics: The Cult of Marginality

In the 1960s film The Graduate the protagonist Benjamin Braddock is a recent college graduate who does not yet have a job. One of his… Read More »The Risk Management Imperative for Government Weapon Systems

The high cost of government weapons and aerospace programs has been a problem for decades. The most outrageous examples often make headlines. In 1985, one… Read More »The $10,000 Toilet Seat Cover, or Why Do Government Systems Cost So Much?