Can We Learn Something from Italy?

In my last post, I wrote that evidence points to a peak in new Coronavirus cases in Italy. Today, there was a new record set for new cases reported in a day for the European country, but on a percentage basis, the trend appears to be slowing. Looking at new cases since the lock down started on March 9th, and comparing it to the projected trend line before that shows that Italy is indeed flattening the curve. In the graph below, the solid line represents new cases, and the dashed line projects forward the trend Italy was on before the lock down. This is what likely would have happened if it had not taken extreme measures to slow the spread of the virus.

The U.S. is not looking as good by comparison. While we have taken partial measures, people are still congregating in restaurants, going to the gym, and flocking to the beach. The total number of reported cases in the US grew by 44% today compared to 13% for Italy. We are just about where Italy was when it started its lock down. We need to learn from Italy’s example if we want to flatten our curve.