As of June 14, more than 600,000 people have died from COVID-19. However, the total impact is not reflected in just the COVID-19 deaths. In a recent article in Bloomberg, economist Alison Schrager points out that there was a 7% increase in traffic fatalities last year. She claims it was because people took more risks on the road because they felt a need to “break free” of COVID-19 restrictions last year and driving faster or under the influence was a way to cope. This is all opinion and not backed up by any data. It could be, for example, that with fewer people on the road people could drive faster, which led to more fatalities. There is no evidence for Ms. Schrager’s hypothesis, but regardless there was a significant jump in traffic fatalities in 2020, an increase of about 2,500. It was the largest number of traffic fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled in more than a decade. Given the unusual nature of 2020, it’s likely these deaths are related to COVID-19. See the graph below.
My major concern with this article is that the author compares the risk of an increase in traffic fatalities with the risk of dying from COVID-19. Even if an additional 2,500 deaths were due to strict lockdowns, how many more people would have died from COVID-19 if there had not been restrictions? If everyone in the U.S. had been infected with COVID-19 in 2020, it’s likely that 1-2 million people would have died from the virus. Epidemic diseases like COVID-19 spread exponentially in a multiplicative process. If you get infected, you are more likely to infect everyone around you, and then those people who catch the disease from you will be likely to infect everyone they are around, and so on. If you are in Seattle and get infected with COVID-19, it could lead to someone in New York City getting the virus. COVID-19 is a big risk.
Car crashes on the other hand, are an additive risk. If you wreck your car, you impact the people near you, and that is the limit of it. Car crashes are an additive risk. A car crash in Seattle will not lead to a car crash in New York City. Thus, car crashes can be considered to be a small risk. You should drive carefully and try to avoid a car crash, but still if it occurs, a car crash could not lead to a rash of car crashes throughout a city, the surrounding state/country/world. Many people have acted cautiously about COVID-19. Our ancestors understood this, as they are the ones who survived the plagues of the past. Some of the worst include an outbreak of the plague in Europe during the 14th century that killed an estimated 30-60% of the population. The risk of traffic fatalities pales in comparison to this kind of risk. The bottom line is when considering risk, trust your instincts, not economists.