I recently watched a Youtube video on the exponential growth in the number of cases of the coronavirus outside of China. It mentioned a 15% increase each day. I decided to do my own analysis,… How Bad Can the Coronavirus Get?
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Baseball player and philosopher Yogi Berra The term “Black Swan” is often used to refer to the realization of an unexpected risk that has a big… S-Curves and the Coronavirus
A county fair in England in the early 20th century held a contest to guess the weight of an ox. The person with the closest guess was awarded a prize. The statistician Francis Galton did… A Guessing Game: The Wisdom of Crowds for Small Samples
In my recent blog post Neoclassical Economics: The Cult of Marginality, I critiqued the use of marginalism in economics. My post received some good feedback, and I am writing this post in response. One response… The Cult of Marginality Revisited
Did you ever had to solve a homework problem, and you used more than one way to solve it? As long as both methods yielded the same result, you would think this would give you… Multiple Models Are Better
When I was in college there was a popular song called Cult of Personality . A couples of lines went: āI tell you one and one makes three, Iām the cult of personality.ā I claim… Neoclassical Economics: The Cult of Marginality
In the 1960s film The Graduate the protagonist Benjamin Braddock is a recent college graduate who does not yet have a job. One of his parents’ friends, Mr. Maguire, gives him some advice, telling him… The Risk Management Imperative for Government Weapon Systems
The high cost of government weapons and aerospace programs has been a problem for decades. The most outrageous examples often make headlines. In 1985, one read “Pentagon pays $640.09 per toilet seat cover, gives new… The $10,000 Toilet Seat Cover, or Why Do Government Systems Cost So Much?