Claims are circulating that although COVID cases have increased across much of the southeast this Summer that it is due to increased testing. Indeed, among 11 southeastern states – Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana,… 

In his excellent book on the importance of understanding uncertainty titled The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage introduces the key notion that “plans based on average assumptions are wrong on average.” A current example of… 

According to a news article yesterday, 54 Florida hospitals have reached their maximum ICU capacity. In the same article, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis stated that 20% of Florida’s ICU capacity was still available. DeSantis’ deflection… 

Do you ever feel like someone is looking over your shoulder when you work?

I’ve been working from home ever since I changed jobs three years ago. One of the things I did not consider is the possibility that the cat will occasionally fall asleep in my work chair… 

The heat map below that shows the increase in cases by age group over time (brighter/lighter means more cases) shows an interesting pattern – it starts increasing in the 20-24 age group and then spreads… 

Could two billion people die from COVID-19? It’s not likely, but according to a recent statistical study of 71 historical contagious disease epidemics by Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Taleb, there have been two historical epidemics… 

Sportscaster Paul Finebaum said today that he thinks there is only a 25% chance that there will be a college football season this Fall. This should concern every football fan. I think he is being…