In his excellent book on the importance of understanding uncertainty titled The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage introduces the key notion that “plans based on average assumptions are wrong on average.” A current example of… The Flaw of Averages and ICU Capacity
According to a news article yesterday, 54 Florida hospitals have reached their maximum ICU capacity. In the same article, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis stated that 20% of Florida’s ICU capacity was still available. DeSantis’ deflection… Lying With Statistics, Florida Style
Do you ever feel like someone is looking over your shoulder when you work?
I’ve been working from home ever since I changed jobs three years ago. One of the things I did not consider is the possibility that the cat will occasionally fall asleep in my work chair… Working From Home
The heat map below that shows the increase in cases by age group over time (brighter/lighter means more cases) shows an interesting pattern – it starts increasing in the 20-24 age group and then spreads… Heat Map of Cases in Florida
Could two billion people die from COVID-19? It’s not likely, but according to a recent statistical study of 71 historical contagious disease epidemics by Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Taleb, there have been two historical epidemics… One Hundred Twenty Million Deaths?
Sportscaster Paul Finebaum said today that he thinks there is only a 25% chance that there will be a college football season this Fall. This should concern every football fan. I think he is being… Save College Football – Wear a Mask!
According to this article, fourteen states and the District of Columbia enacted statewide mandates before June 1st requiring masks to be worn in public. Looking at data for June, we see that states which had… Mask Mandates Work