In 2020, according to Worldometer more than 350,000 people have died from COVID-19 in the United States. There was a significant surge after Thanksgiving, but are things looking better? The reporting of new cases are down across the country but that is influenced by the holidays but looking at the positive rate things are looking a little better at year’s end. This means that while testing is down, new cases are decreasing even more. In the graph below, the blue line, which is measured along the right y-axis, represents the positive test percentage. That percentage is down slightly from its peak on December 12th.
Of course, with holiday travel for Christmas break this could all be reversed in early January. Also, we are at a high plateau compared to the period from late Spring to mid-November, so any spike will be from a higher base of infected people. A post-Christmas surge in January could potentially be the worst since early in the Spring of 2020.
The U.S. positivity rate represents an average – this slight decrease is not uniform across all states. Two states where the positivity rate is surging are Alabama and Tennessee. See the graph below for the Tennessee data. Part of this is due to less testing, but it is a troubling sign nonetheless.
Alabama’s test positivity rate is even more concerning. It is currently greater than 40% percent. This means testing is too low. Many people who are contracting the virus are not finding out they have the virus, and as a result are likely not isolating themselves to slow the spread of COVID-19.
Note: the graphs in this blog are from Johns Hopkins.