A good measure of how COVID-19 is progressing is the number of active cases. However, this is woefully under reported. The media seems obsessed with the change in confirmed cases, but unless you compare the increase in confirmed cases with the rate at which people are recovering, you cannot get a good sense of how the number of people with the disease is increasing or decreasing. If the number of active cases is increasing, the disease is continuing to spread, but if the number of active cases is decreasing, there are fewer actively infected people to spread the disease. Not all states keep track of this, such as Georgia. Fortunately, Tennessee keeps track of this statistic.
Since Sunday, while the number of confirmed cases in Tennessee has increased by 919, the number of active cases has decreased by 50. One statistic seems to indicate the disease is continuing to spread, while another, more meaningful one indicates it is flattening out, or even starting to decline. See the graph below for a comparison.
This is a short period of time, but it provides some evidence that 11 days into the re-opening of the state, that things are not getting any worse.
Interesting. Very clear and clever graph.
Thanks Doug!
This is good news, even though it is early in the reopening game. Thank you for the graph and explanation.
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