“Only a fool learns from his own mistakes. The wise man learns from the mistakes of others.” – Otto von Bismark
In my last post, I examined the increase in deaths and cases relative to number of deaths from June to July in the southeast. In this post, I look at the same statistics for all U.S. states and the District of Columbia. See the graph below for a comparison.
The x-axis plots the increase in cases relative to the number of tests, as a percentage, from June to July. For example, tests in Tennessee increased by 133% in July from the previous month, but the number of new cases in July increased by 205%. Even though testing increased, the number of new cases increased at an even faster rate – the ratio is 154%. Only six states had a decrease in cases in July. Massachusetts had a 27% decrease in cases in July, but a 25% increase in test, for a ratio equal to -104%. Only three other states plus D.C. had a smaller percentage increase in cases than tests, meaning that cases grew faster than testing in 41 states last month.
The y-axis plots the increase in deaths by state. Seventeen states plus D.C. had a decrease in deaths in July as compared with June. In fifteen states, the number of deaths more than doubled, including Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, and Tennessee.
What most of the states that experienced a decrease in deaths and either a decrease in the number of cases or a smaller increase than testing have in common is that they issued a state mask mandate prior to June. These are the green dots in the graph. Many other states have issued mask mandates since the beginning of June, but it takes time for this to have an impact. The reason some of these states issued a mask mandate earlier than June was because they had experienced a severe outbreak of COVID-19 in the Spring. They learned from their mistakes. If we are wise, we should learn from their mistakes before we suffer the same fate.
This provides yet more evidence of the need for mask mandates. These data also show the sooner they are implemented, the better.
Note: Some of the biggest increases are not on the chart, but for these states, the total number of cases and deaths is still small. For example, despite a big increase in July, there were still on 38 deaths attributed to COVID-19 in Montana. However, there is still the potential for more growth in these states.