Some recent headlines have cited a University of Washington model that predicts 410,000 COVID-19 deaths by the end of this year, with a range from 288,000 to 620,000, depending on whether or not people continue to wear face coverings in public. The current death toll, depending on which database you use, is currently around 190,000, so this would amount to more than a doubling in deaths. However, the source of the estimate needs some examination.
This model was once widely relied upon by the White House. It does not have a good track record. Back in April, it forecast a range for total deaths due to the virus of 38,000 to 162,000. We are already well beyond the upper range of that forecast. The individual who has proven to be the most consistently accurate forecast is MIT graduate Youyang Gu. He projects 220,000 deaths by the end of October, and has stated on social media that:
- there is too much uncertainty to forecast beyond two months from now; and
- if you have to estimate, his range is 210,000 – 300,000 deaths by the end of the year.
While still nothing to laugh about, the difference between 300,000 and 400,000 deaths is significant. The IHME lost credibility with its early forecasts. Youyang Gu is much more likely to be accurate than IHME.
Having said all that, there is still a great deal of uncertainty. We don’t know what the longer-term impact of school and university re-openings will be, and we don’t know how the colder weather will affect the severity of illness due to COVID-19. On the positive side, physicians know much more about the virus now and are better able to treat people who are infected. From a risk management perspective, we should not relax our vigilance. We still need to be careful, as there still is a great deal of uncertainty with COVID-19.